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Report

List of boxes, charts and tables

Boxes

Box 1.1: The international response to climate change
Box 2.1: Sources of greenhouse gas emissions
Box 2.2: Market-based policy responses to climate change
Box 2.3: Policy assumptions in the modelling
Box 2.4: Australia as a part of international action
Box 2.5: Measuring emissions
Box 2.6: Projections over long timeframes
Box 2.7: Market exchange rate versus purchasing power parity
Box 2.8: Alternative way to report on modelling - a hypothetical example
Box 3.1: Climate change policies in the reference scenario
Box 3.2: Reference scenarios compared
Box 3.3: Climate change projections in the reference scenario
Box 3.4: The reference scenario in G-Cubed
Box 3.5: Energy efficiency
Box 3.6: Commodity prices
Box 3.7: Methodology for household spending distributional analysis
Box 4.1: Climate change projections: stabilisation at 450 and 550 ppm
Box 4.2: Alternative specifications of targets
Box 4.3: Depletion of natural resources
Box 4.4: Emission targets, mitigation and trade
Box 5.1: The emission price in G-Cubed
Box 5.2: How do mitigation costs arise?
Box 5.3: Forward-looking behaviour and early action
Box 5.4: Impact of a multi-stage global framework
Box 5.5: Implications of revising stabilisation goals
Box 5.6: Comparison with other mitigation cost studies
Box 5.7: The role of carbon capture and storage
Box 5.8: Electric vehicles and fuel cell technology
Box 5.9: Future transport fuels
Box 6.1: Difference in GNP and GDP impacts across models
Box 6.2: Unavoidable mitigation cost impacts
Box 6.3: Impact on domestic consumption
Box 6.4: Revenue recycling
Box 6.5: Technology sensitivity details
Box 6.6: Sectoral impacts and structural adjustment
Box 6.7: Impact on competitiveness in a multi-stage world: the role of shielding
Box 6.8: Modelling of electricity generation in GTEM and MMRF
Box 6.9: Early retirement of power plants
Box 6.10: The expanded Renewable Energy Target
Box 6.11: Mitigation policy and inflation

Charts

Chart 1: Five pathways for Australian emissions and GNP
Chart 2: Emission reductions by sector
Chart 2.1: Integrating the suite of models
Chart 2.2: GDP - hypothetical reference and policy scenarios
Chart 3.1: Gross world product per capita growth
Chart 3.2: Fuel combustion emissions
Chart 3.3: Global emissions by gas
Chart 3.4: Global greenhouse gas emissions
Chart 3.5: Emission intensity
Chart 3.6: Shares of global emissions
Chart 3.7: Gross world product growth
Chart 3.8: World population
Chart 3.9: Gross world product per capita growth
Chart 3.10: Gross domestic product per adult
Chart 3.11: Distribution of gross world product
Chart 3.12: Share of total output by sector
Chart 3.13: Global emissions by sector
Chart 3.14: World electricity demand
Chart 3.15: World electricity generation by fuel
Chart 3.16: World electricity emissions by fuel
Chart 3.17: Mode of global transport
Chart 3.18: Global transport emissions
Chart 3.19: Global road transport technology share
Chart 3.20: Real GNP and real GNP per capita
Chart 3.21: Australian emissions
Chart 3.22: Share of cumulative emissions 2005 to 2050
Chart 3.23: Emission intensity
Chart 3.24: Emissions in Australia
Chart 3.25: Emissions by state/territory
Chart 3.26: Decomposition of GDP growth
Chart 3.27: Australian population
Chart 3.28: Australia's terms of trade
Chart 3.29: Australian GDP and GNP levels
Chart 3.30: Consumption, investment and export shares of GDP
Chart 3.31: Commodity price assumptions
Chart 3.32: Export shares by key sectors
Chart 3.33: Value added shares
Chart 3.34: Electricity sector
Chart 3.35: Australian electricity generation, technology shares
Chart 3.36: Transport sector
Chart 3.37: Road transport sector
Chart 3.38: Road transport sector
Chart 3.39: Australian land under forestry, and associated sequestration
Chart 3.40: Emission-intensive industries
Chart 3.41: Aggregate household spending
Chart 3.42: Spending on energy as a percentage of all spending
Chart 3.43: Spending on energy as a percentage of all spending
Chart 3.44: Spending on energy by household size
Chart 4.1: Australian emission allocations
Chart 4.2: Global emissions and allocations
Chart 4.3: Global emissions pathway and allocation
Chart 4.4: Multi-stage emission allocations: relative to reference scenario
Chart 4.5: Contraction and convergence approach
Chart 5.1: Global emission allocations
Chart 5.2: Global emission prices
Chart 5.3: Emissions, allocations and cumulative banked permits
Chart 5.4: Decomposition of global mitigation by gas
Chart 5.5: GTEM: Gross world product per capita
Chart 5.6: GTEM: Gross world product
Chart 5.7: G-Cubed: Gross world product
Chart 5.8: Emission intensity of gross world product
Chart 5.9: Cost of global mitigation policy delay
Chart 5.10: Gross world product
Chart 5.11: GNP mitigation costs across regions
Chart 5.12: Mitigation by gas
Chart 5.13: Contribution of international income transfers to GNP
Chart 5.14: Contribution of international income transfers to GNP
Chart 5.15: Terms of trade
Chart 5.16: GTEM sectoral output relative to the reference scenario in 2020
Chart 5.17: G-Cubed sectoral output relative to the reference scenario in 2020
Chart 5.18: GTEM sectoral output relative to the reference scenario in 2050
Chart 5.19: G-Cubed sectoral output relative to the reference scenario in 2050
Chart 5.20: Global emissions mitigation, by sector
Chart 5.21: Global emissions mitigation, by sector
Chart 5.22: Emission intensity of world electricity generation
Chart 5.23: Global electricity generation, Change from reference scenario
Chart 5.24: Global electricity sector technology share
Chart 5.25: Composition of renewable electricity generation
Chart 5.26: Global technology shares in electricity generation
Chart 5.27: Regional electricity supply prices
Chart 5.28: Global transport emissions
Chart 5.29: Cost of transport technology
Chart 5.30: Transport technology shares
Chart 5.31: Cumulative global sequestration from land-use change and forestry
Chart 5.32: Global agriculture emissions
Chart 6.1: Australian emission allocations and GNP per capita
Chart 6.2: Australia's emission allocation
Chart 6.3: Australian emission price
Chart 6.4: Australia's emission pathways
Chart 6.5: Emission intensity of GDP
Chart 6.6: Sector emissions
Chart 6.7: Share of cumulative emission reductions by sector
Chart 6.8: Sector emissions
Chart 6.9: GNP per capita
Chart 6.10: Gross domestic product
Chart 6.11: Capital Stock and Investment
Chart 6.12: Real wages
Chart 6.13: Terms of trade
Chart 6.14: Australia's actual emissions, allocations and permit trading
Chart 6.15: Domestic consumption
Chart 6.16: Australian gross national product
Chart 6.17: Gross State Product
Chart 6.18: Gross State Product
Chart 6.19: Emission intensity
Chart 6.20: Australia's coal sector
Chart 6.21: Trade-exposed emission-intensive industries - emissions
Chart 6.22: Australian aluminium output relative to current levels
Chart 6.23: Electricity demand
Chart 6.24: Emission intensity of electricity technologies
Chart 6.25: Technology shares of generation
Chart 6.26: Emission intensity of electricity generation
Chart 6.27: Average Australian wholesale electricity prices
Chart 6.28: Gas-fired electricity generation
Chart 6.29: Coal and gas generation
Chart 6.30: Renewables capacity
Chart 6.31: Electricity sector emissions
Chart 6.32: Transport sector emissions
Chart 6.33: Contribution to transport mitigation
Chart 6.34: Distance travelled by mode of road transport
Chart 6.35: Road transport fuel mix
Chart 6.36: Australian additional land under forestry
Chart 6.37: Australian forestry sequestration
Chart 6.38: Private per capita consumption
Chart 6.39: Household expenditure shares in 2020
Chart A.1: How the suite of models fit together
Chart B.1: Emission allocations by region
Chart B.2: Contraction and convergence approach
Chart B.3: Australian population
Chart B.4: Industry labour-augmenting technical change
Chart B.5: Australia's terms of trade
Chart B.6: Energy commodity price assumptions
Chart B.7: Domestic Australian gas prices
Chart B.8: Cumulative renewable capacity constraints - MMA

Tables

Table 1: Australia's emissions and economy
Table 2.1: CO2 emissions from energy, 2005
Table 3.1: Global emissions
Table 3.2: Emissions by region
Table 3.3: Gross domestic product per capita
Table 3.4: Global plantations and deforestation
Table 3.5: Cumulative global land-use change and forestry emissions since 2005
Table 3.6: Growth of other emission-intensive sectors
Table 3.7: Share of world emissions (direct and indirect)
Table 3.8: Emissions by source
Table 3.9: Population growth by state/territory
Table 3.10: Consumption shares, 2020
Table 3.11: Gross state product
Table 3.12: Spending on energy by principal source of household income, 2010-11
Table 4.1: Summary of emission trajectories
Table 4.2: Advantages and disadvantages of different climate change targets
Table 4.3: Summary of policy mechanisms
Table 5.1: Global emission allocations 91
Table 5.2: National emission allocations
Table 5.3: Global emission prices
Table 5.4: Emission prices (US /tCO2-e, nominal) first year of scheme
Table 5.5: Global allocations, emissions and banked permits
Table 5.6: Gross world product, change from reference scenario
Table 5.7: Gross world product, average annual growth rates
Table 5.8: Regional GDP costs in 2050
Table 5.9: Net present value of GWP
Table 5.10: Gross world product mitigation cost estimates
Table 5.11: Emission Intensity of GDP
Table 5.12: Regional GNP costs
Table 5.13: Delay in growth, GNP per capita
Table 5.14: Regional GDP costs
Table 5.15: Terms of trade impacts
Table 5.16: GTEM international trade in permits
Table 5.17: GTEM regional emissions
Table 5.18: G-Cubed international trade in permits
Table 5.19: G-Cubed CO2-e permit prices
Table 5.20: GTEM regional real exchange rate impacts
Table 5.21: Emissions by sector
Table 5.22: Global land-use and forestry sequestration
Table 5.23: Direct and indirect emissions for other emission-intensive sectors
Table 6.1: Mitigation scenarios
Table 6.2: GNP per capita annual growth rates
Table 6.3: GDP annual growth rates
Table 6.4: Headline national indicators
Table 6.5: Other national indicators
Table 6.6: Contributions to GNP
Table 6.7: Industry investment
Table 6.8: Australian allocation, emissions, trade and banking
Table 6.9: Technology sensitivities
Table 6.10: Impacts at the sectoral level
Table 6.11: Gross output, by sector, 2050
Table 6.12: Employment, by sector, 2050
Table 6.13: Electricity sector emissions reductions
Table 6.14: Average wholesale electricity price increase
Table 6.15: Average household electricity price increases
Table 6.16: Carbon capture and storage, estimated deployment year and emission price
Table 6.17: Transport output
Table 6.18: Estimated price impacts by household type
Table 6.19: Estimated price impacts by household type
Table 6.20: Estimated price impacts by region in 2010
Table 6.21: Estimated price impacts by region in 2010
Table A.1: Regions and sectors of GTEM
Table A.2: Database change: increase in wage bill for former Soviet Union
Table A.3: Regions and sectors of G-Cubed
Table A.4: Sectoral aggregation in MMRF
Table A.5: Concordance of GTEM and MMRF sectors
Table A.6: Inputs and Outputs of the Energy Sector Model (ESM)
Table B.1: Key emissions trading scheme design features, policy scenarios
Table B.2: Regional groupings in GTEM and G-Cubed
Table B.3: Summary of offset credit assumptions
Table B.4: Carbon pollution reduction scheme design
Table B.5: World GDP (GTEM regions)
Table B.6: Australia's population, productivity and GDP
Table B.7: Gross state product
Table B.8: State population
Table B.9: Global population level and growth rates (GTEM regions)
Table B.10: Productivity level to the US level (GTEM regions)
Table B.11: Sectoral labour productivity distribution
Table B.12: Change in factor efficiency per doubling in the level of extraction
Table B.13: Intermediate input usage in MMRF(a)
Table B.14: Intermediate input efficiency, GTEM
Table B.15: Household taste shocks in MMRF
Table B.16: Transport sector energy-efficiency assumptions
Table B.17: CSIRO fuel efficiency improvements
Table B.18: Non-ferrous metals energy-efficiency shocks
Table B.19: Non-metallic mineral energy-efficiency shocks
Table B.20: Chemical, rubber and plastics energy efficiency shocks
Table B.21: Blast furnace
Table B.22: Electric Arc
Table B.23: Technology characteristics, MMA
Table B.24: Thermal efficiency of new power plants in electricity generation in GTEM
Table B.25: Reductions in non-combustion emission intensity in GTEM
Table B.26: Reductions in non-combustion emission intensity in MMRF
Table B.27: GTEM fugitive/industrial process emission MAC curve parameters
Table B.28: MMRF industrial process emission MAC curve parameters
Table B.29: MMRF combustion emission MAC curve parameters
Table B.30: Cost assumptions, 2007 prices
Table B.31: Assumed mill-door price by type in the reference scenario, 2007 prices

 


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